This weekend we have an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these early cards so I can wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and then go out and revel in the remainder of the afternoon when the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters making their UFC debut. Because of this, I believe we ought to have a big edge this week should we put in the work. Most casual players won’t be doing research on those names they have never heard and will only be throwing lineups trying to get lucky and hit on a big score. I’ll personally be pursuing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking multiple shots at those big prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s an arduous card this Sunday and I believe we will see a good deal of people making mistakes in money games. Any time I think I can guarantee a complete 100+ points in a fight, I like to stack it in my money games and lock those points. I think this battle will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I think we can see multiple knockdowns too which would help, but I believe we easily get over 100+ points combined with both of these guys. Let’s let everyone else make the mistakes and we can lock at a 100+ points and a win, then we only need to locate another 3 wins we’re confident in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think that this matchup was set up for Bermudez a win. He has quite a slick entry game and if this fight goes to the floor I think he can pick up progress points quickly and locate a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his career and even if he is winning on the feet, he still shoots in for takedowns each fight. I think if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, then Grant will eventually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I think we can see a 1st round entry here which should easily get the 10x+ we are looking for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog drama of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this fight he’ll easily repay this price . He’s got 100-point upside and using a 7.5k salary that will surely place him on the winning lineup when he can get there. Anthony Smith has been knocked out more times than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I wouldn’t be shocked if Shogun can get a KO here against Smith, who is taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down in the past few years but I think he has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory . I do need exposure to both men in GPPs, however I believe you need some exposure to Rua if you’re making multiple lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my own selections being right and I can hit the right combo. It is hard to choose one favorite fade this week but I will select Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I think he’ll use takedowns to acquire the choice win here. So, you would think that sounds good on DraftKings because wrestling racks up points. But, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and he ends up with only 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and that I don’t see him getting a submission. However, I believe we’ll see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory as we have seen from him previously. Hein has 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game titles for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That’s why he’s my fade of the week.
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